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Next-Generation Travel Demand Modeling with a Generative Framework for Household Activity Coordination

Liao, Xishun, Ma, Haoxuan, Liu, Yifan, Wei, Yuxiang, He, Brian Yueshuai, Stanford, Chris, Ma, Jiaqi

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Next-Generation Travel Demand Modeling with a Generative Framework for Household Activity Coordination Xishun Liao 1, Haoxuan Ma 1, Yifan Liu 1, Y uxiang Wei 1, Brian Y ueshuai He 2, Chris Stanford 3, and Jiaqi Ma* 1 Abstract -- Travel demand models are critical tools for planning, policy, and mobility system design. Traditional activity-based models (ABMs), although grounded in behavioral theories, often rely on simplified rules and assumptions, and are costly to develop and difficult to adapt across different regions. This paper presents a learning-based travel demand modeling framework that synthesizes household-coordinated daily activity patterns based on a household's socio-demographic profiles. The whole framework integrates population synthesis, coordinated activity generation, location assignment, and large-scale microscopic traffic simulation into a unified system. It is fully generative, data-driven, scalable, and transferable to other regions. A full-pipeline implementation is conducted in Los Angeles with a 10 million population. Comprehensive validation shows that the model closely replicates real-world mobility patterns and matches the performance of legacy ABMs with significantly reduced modeling cost and greater scalability. With respect to the SCAG ABM benchmark, the origin-destination matrix achieves a cosine similarity of 0.97, and the daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the network yields a 0.006 Jensen-Shannon Divergence (JSD) and a 9.8% mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).


Deep Activity Model: A Generative Approach for Human Mobility Pattern Synthesis

Liao, Xishun, He, Brian Yueshuai, Jiang, Qinhua, Kuai, Chenchen, Ma, Jiaqi

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human mobility significantly impacts various aspects of society, including transportation, urban planning, and public health. The increasing availability of diverse mobility data and advancements in deep learning have revolutionized mobility modeling. Existing deep learning models, however, mainly study spatio-temporal patterns using trajectories and often fall short in capturing the underlying semantic interdependency among activities. Moreover, they are also constrained by the data source. These two factors thereby limit their realism and adaptability, respectively. Meanwhile, traditional activity-based models (ABMs) in transportation modeling rely on rigid assumptions and are costly and time-consuming to calibrate, making them difficult to adapt and scale to new regions, especially those regions with limited amount of required conventional travel data. To address these limitations, we develop a novel generative deep learning approach for human mobility modeling and synthesis, using ubiquitous and open-source data. Additionally, the model can be fine-tuned with local data, enabling adaptable and accurate representations of mobility patterns across different regions. The model is evaluated on a nationwide dataset of the United States, where it demonstrates superior performance in generating activity chains that closely follow ground truth distributions. Further tests using state- or city-specific datasets from California, Washington, and Mexico City confirm its transferability. This innovative approach offers substantial potential to advance mobility modeling research, especially in generating human activity chains as input for downstream activity-based mobility simulation models and providing enhanced tools for urban planners and policymakers.


Modelling the Frequency of Home Deliveries: An Induced Travel Demand Contribution of Aggrandized E-shopping in Toronto during COVID-19 Pandemics

Liu, Yicong, Wang, Kaili, Loa, Patrick, Habib, Khandker Nurul

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The dramatic growth of e-shopping will undoubtedly cause significant impacts on travel demand. As a result, transportation modeller's ability to model e-shopping demand is becoming increasingly important. This study developed models to predict households' weekly home delivery frequencies. We used both classical econometric and machine learning techniques to obtain the best model. It is found that socioeconomic factors such as having an online grocery membership, household members' average age, the percentage of male household members, the number of workers in the household and various land-use factors influence home delivery demand. This study also compared the interpretations and performances of the machine learning models and the classical econometric model. Agreement is found in the variable's effects identified through the machine learning and econometric models. However, with similar recall accuracy, the ordered probit model, a classical econometric model, can accurately predict the aggregate distribution of household delivery demand. In contrast, both machine learning models failed to match the observed distribution.


Post-human interaction design, yes, but cautiously

van Dijk, Jelle

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Post-human design runs the risk of obscuring the fact that AI technology actually imports a Cartesian humanist logic, which subsequently influences how we design and conceive of so-called smart or intelligent objects. This leads to unwanted metaphorical attributions of human qualities to smart objects. Instead, starting from an embodied sensemaking perspective, designers should demand of engineers to radically transform the very structure of AI technology, in order to truly support critical posthuman values of collectivity, relationality and community building.


Artificial Intelligence is the Link Between Big Data and Persons-Level Measurement

#artificialintelligence

Truth in measurement has never been more important than it is today. Therefore, truth is our only agenda. But arriving at that truth has never been more complicated. While many view big data as a panacea for measurement in a digitally rich world, we know it's not that simple. Nielsen's panels have been the foundation of person-level measurement for decades, and they remain so today.


Man, 28, arrested for allegedly beating girlfriend after an Amazon Alexa device calls 911

Daily Mail - Science & tech

A New Mexico man was arrested for allegedly beating his girlfriend after their Amazon device alerted police. Eduardo Barros, 28, was with his girlfriend and her daughter at a residence in Tijeras, outside of Albuquerque, on July 2. The pair got into an argument and the confrontation became physical, according to the Bernalillo County Sheriff Department's spokesperson, Deputy Felicia Romero. Eduardo Barros, 28, (pictured), was arrested for allegedly threatening to kill his girlfriend after he mentioned'calling sheriffs' during a fight, which prompted an Alexa device to call 911 It is understood Barros allegedly became angered because of a text message that the woman received and he accused her of cheating on him. He was allegedly in possession of a firearm and threatened to kill his unidentified girlfriend, saying to her, 'Did you call the sheriffs?' A smart speaker, which was connected to a surround sound system inside the house, recognized the comment as a voice command and called 911, Romero told the New York Post.


Clustering of Modal Valued Symbolic Data

Batagelj, Vladimir, Kejžar, Nataša, Korenjak-Černe, Simona

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Symbolic Data Analysis is based on special descriptions of data - symbolic objects (SO). Such descriptions preserve more detailed information about units and their clusters than the usual representations with mean values. A special kind of symbolic object is a representation with frequency or probability distributions (modal values). This representation enables us to consider in the clustering process the variables of all measurement types at the same time. In the paper a clustering criterion function for SOs is proposed such that the representative of each cluster is again composed of distributions of variables' values over the cluster. The corresponding leaders clustering method is based on this result. It is also shown that for the corresponding agglomerative hierarchical method a generalized Ward's formula holds. Both methods are compatible - they are solving the same clustering optimization problem. The leaders method efficiently solves clustering problems with large number of units; while the agglomerative method can be applied alone on the smaller data set, or it could be applied on leaders, obtained with compatible nonhierarchical clustering method. Such a combination of two compatible methods enables us to decide upon the right number of clusters on the basis of the corresponding dendrogram. The proposed methods were applied on different data sets. In the paper, some results of clustering of ESS data are presented.